It’s the Easter holidays at the School of Scottish Democracy. But the exams are looming and many pupils will not return. Candidates are swotting hard for the elections on 7 May.
A third of the 129 MSPs are leaving of their own accord, including former first ministers Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf. A parade of other ministers are also leaving: Shona Robison, Fiona Hyslop, Richard Lochhead. The deputy first minister Kate Forbes and the children’s minister Natalie Don-Innes are leaving because they want to spend more time with their young children – such are the pressures of political life these days.
The new term will bring big changes in personnel. The headmaster, however, will remain. According to the opinion polls, John Swinney and the SNP look likely to be the biggest party, with around 60 seats – just short of a majority. Labour and Reform are fighting it out for second place. The Greens, Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives are all polling at around 10 per cent support.
The last five years have been a time of special scientific interest. It began during the Covid pandemic with Nicola Sturgeon in charge, contrasting nicely with the Tory post-Brexit shambles at Westminster. And then she stumbled, diverted by a fall-out with Alex Salmond and the gender debate. She finally resigned in March 2023, just before her husband was charged with embezzlement of party funds.
Her successor Humza Yousaf only lasted 14 months, brought down by his sudden decision to freeze council tax and to jettison the Bute House Agreement with the Greens. It left the party split between left and right, and between social progressives and social conservatives. The headmaster had to take over once again, but he didn’t have time to save the party from disaster at the Westminster elections in 2024.
And in those turbulent five years, what has the Scottish Parliament achieved? It’s passed 72 new laws, covering among other things: environmental protection, land reform, domestic abuse, football ticket touts, hate crimes, a visitor levy and abolishing the “not proven” verdict. Bills which caused much angst but failed to make it into law include gender recognition and assisted dying.
But actually, passing laws is not the most important thing the parliament has been doing. It’s been a forum of debate, reflecting the mood and demands of the county. It’s been holding the SNP government to account for its occasional failings, like ferry contracts and hospital buildings. And most importantly of all, it’s been approving the Budget – how much we pay in tax and how much we spend on the NHS, education, council services and the rest.
No sooner had Holyrood closed for the holidays on Wednesday than the political parties were lunching their election campaigns. On Thursday John Swinney was making the obvious promise to improve the NHS, ahead of a big Independence Rally planned for Saturday. Anas Sarwar was promising to “walk the narrow road” to power with a pledge to employ 2,000 more teachers and 1,500 classroom assistants. The Greens, Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives held election launches in Edinburgh.
And Reform….well, Reform is the new party in this race, doing well in the opinion polls but falling apart on the campaign trail. Their tax cutting plans have been branded as “not fiscally credible” by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Four of their candidates have already dropped out, and their leader Malcolm Offord is under criticism for remarks he made at a rugby club dinner eight years ago. Such is the unfair scrutiny our politicians are under.
What I find unsettling is that despite 27 years of the Scottish Parliament, none of the political parties appear to understand the idea of “devolution”. The opposition parties blame the SNP for not spending enough on the NHS, social care, the police, universities, housing, potholes and whatever else is popular, without realising that the Scottish budget is limited by Westminster. The SNP blame Westminster for not allowing them Independence. And Westminster governments, of all colours, don’t understand when not to interfere in Scotland’s devolved responsibilities, such as allocating pots of money for their own pet projects in Scotland.
So as the Easter campaigns get under way, I hope there will be no more unrealistic tax and spending pledges. Let’s have a little more honesty and courageous leadership. Please let’s forget the embarrassing quotes from long ago. And may the photoshoots be genuinely fun and exciting.
