Probabilities in online sports betting are represented as so-called “implied probabilities”. It indicates the chance of a certain outcome happening in an event based on the odds the sports betting site sets. Of course, every bet has different probabilities and payout potential, so in this guide, we will take a look at what probabilities in sports betting mean and the most popular betting markets commonly offered by bookmakers.
Popular Bet Types in Online Sportsbooks
Now that you know how odds are represented and how to calculate the probability for each event, here are a few of the most popular betting markets at online bookmakers.
Accumulator Bets
Accumulator bets combine four or more outcomes from different events in one single bet. The odds for each are combined to get the total possible payout. Some bookmakers will allow punters to settle a bet early with cash out promotions. The settled amount is smaller than the full potential profit.
Single Bet
A single bet is a wager that you place on one outcome in an event. You can place a bet on the winner of the game, the total number of goals, both teams to score, a player scoring, the total number of points, who will be the top goalscorer in a tournament, over/under, and more.
Bet Builder
A bet builder allows punters to wager on multiple outcomes from a single match. You can bet on a certain team to win, a player to score and the total number of corners, all of which need to be correct to get a win.
Handicap Betting
Handicap betting occurs when one of the teams or players in a game is given a mathematical deficit or advantage. This is a scenario that levels out the playing field and offers slightly better odds, especially if you wager on the favourite.
Draw No Bet
A draw no bet wager is commonly used in football games. It eliminates the possibility of losing the wager if the event ends in a draw. Here, you bet on a team to win, but if the match ends in a draw, you will get a refund on your bet.
Prop Bets
Proposition bets are wagers placed on certain events or milestones within a game, rather than just the final outcome. You can place player props that see you bet on a certain athlete’s performance (like scoring a hat-trick or recording a double-double), or a team performance (wagering on collective team achievements, like which team scores first).
In-Play Bets
In-play bets are wagers placed on events that have already started. The main benefit of an in-play bet is that the punter already has some sort of idea of how the match is going and the current momentum. In-play bets can vary, from specific player wagers, over/under, total points, goals, etc.
Calculating Implied Probability in Sports Betting
Before we check out the different markets, you must understand how implied probability works. There are different types of odds you can come across in betting sites, and there is a slightly different calculation to make for each.
Fractional Odds
Turning fractional odds into probability requires you to use the following formula:
- (a / (a + b)) x 100 (a/b are the odds of an event)
So, for odds 2/1, the calculation would be as follows:
- (1 / (2 + 1)) x 100 = 33. The probability is 33%.
Decimal Odds
Decimal odds have a pretty straightforward calculation:
- 100/odds
So, if the odds for an event are 4.00, the calculation would be:
- 100/4 = 25. This equals 25% probability
Moneyline Odds
Depending on whether you want to calculate the probabilities for underdogs or favourites, there are different calculations:
- Underdogs: Divide the odds by 100, then use the formula (1 / (a + 1)) x 100. “A” is the result when the odds are divided by 100.
- Favourites: For favourites, the same formula applies, with just one difference. The end result is simply subtracted from 100.
Considerations and Tips When Placing Bets
Deciding the type of bet you place depends on your experience, budget and preferences. Here are a few things to keep in mind when placing a wager:
- Legality of the site: Make sure to opt for a secure site licensed by trusted regulators.
- Research: Doing extensive research will help you make better-informed decisions. There is no way to guarantee wins, but knowing the recent form, history of the match, or injuries will help you more than just placing wagers blindfolded.
- Leave emotion out: Trusting your instinct can help you sometimes, but never let emotion get in the way of sports betting. Avoid being biased towards local or favourite teams or players.
Regardless of the type of bet you place or the bookmaker you choose, make sure to stay within your budget frame and avoid overspending. Reputable sites will use different tools and strategies to minimise the disruption for recreational bettors.
