Labour and the Liberal Democrats were neck and neck at the Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart by-election, according to data released by the council.
Under the Single Transferrable Vote system used by the election, candidates are eliminated in stages, with the lowest scoring candidate in each stage eliminated.
Voters rank candidates in order of preference, and can rank as many or as few candidates as they wish.
For each candidate knocked out, their votes are analysed. If a voter had a lower-ranked candidate still in the running, their vote was redistributed to them.
Reform UK’s Gary Neill was the first major party candidate to be eliminated, ranking last in the ninth stage, with 196 votes transferring to Mark Hooley, and a handful going to other parties.
Next to fall was the SNP’s Murray Visentin, who went at the 10th stage. The majority of his votes – 408 – went to the Scottish Greens’ Q Manivannan, with 134 going to Labour, 116 to the Liberal Democrats and 29 to the Conservatives.
This pushed Manivannan into the lead briefly, with their 1,595 votes standing 97 ahead of Labour’s 1,498, and 115 ahead of the Liberal Democrats’ 1,480.
Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats were within 30 votes of each other for most of the transfer stages.
But, the tight-necked race collapsed when Conservative candidate Mark Hooley was knocked out in the 11th stage.
Some 387 of his votes went to the Liberal Democrat candidate, Kevin Joseph McKay, while only 166 went to Scottish Labour’s Catriona Munro, giving Mr McKay a 199 vote lead.
A rebound for Scottish Labour came when Manivannan fell out in the 12th stage, with 449 of their votes going to Mr McKay and 551 going to Ms Munro.
But, it was not enough to secure Labour the seat. Mr McKay was still ahead by 97 votes – enough to bring him the victory, and increase the Liberal Democrat group in the council to 14 members.
Ms Munro’s votes were still redistributed in a 13th stage, with 1,093 of them transferring to McKay – leaving him with a total of 3,409 votes.
It marks a stark reversal for the Liberal Democrats, who in the 2022 council elections took home just 7.1% of the first preference votes and were knocked out in the fifth stage.
By comparison, this time, they took home 20.4% of the first preference votes.
The victory is the third by-election win for the party this term, snagging one seat in March 2023 and another in November 2024.
However, their win last year was incredibly short lived, with councillor Louise Spence resigning after six days due to her having apparently made plans to move to Dubai within days of the by-election.
The party now holds 14 seats, below the SNP’s 17 but ahead of Labour’s 11 and the 10 each for the Tories and the Greens, as well as the council’s one independent member, Ross McKenzie.
To hold a majority of votes in the City Chambers, a coalition needs 32 councillors behind it.
When asked on Thursday night if his group might make a bid to run the council, Liberal Democrat group leader councillor Ed Thornley said that his group ‘will have a conversation’.
By Joseph Sullivan Local Democracy Reporter
