There was no sign of the election during my Easter holiday in Kirkcudbrightshire. There were sunny days and April showers but no posters on lamp-posts, no hoardings, no canvassers knocking on doors, only the occasional Question Time in local church halls. It’s all on TV, newspapers or social media.
In Kirkcudbrightshire the talk was all about struggling farms and quiet cafés. The so-called “cost of living crisis” has put a chill in the economic air, as cold as the chill in the west winds. I say “so-called crisis” because it’s only a crisis for the poor – who should be compensated. The rest of us can withstand a three per cent rise in prices, and even a five per cent rise if the war in Iran continues. Certainly, a rise in food prices would be good for those struggling farmers.
So because the election campaign has gone indoors, it has lost the colour of those “Glasgow Boys” paintings which E A Hornel pioneered from his studio in Kirkcudbright. We are half way through the campaign now and, apart from the SNP’s Independence March in week one, there has been little sense of street circus. Each party has held its own indoor rallies or photoshoots, none of which have been particularly stunning.
The one exception has been the TV debates, on the BBC and Channel 4. We can’t really call them colourful but they were theatrical. The six men in dark suits, the leaders of the main parties, stood at little podiums against a black wall. The selected audience gave them largely negative questions and responses. And not much wonder, because there was much talking over each other, many uncosted promises and ungentlemanly insults.
The media are making much of a small but unseemly row over remarks the Reform leader, Malcom Offord made on stage, to the effect that Anas Sarwar the Scottish Labour leader had made him an offer to work together after the election to keep the SNP out of power. Mr Sarwar denied the claim, calling it a “lie from a “pathetic, poisonous, odious, little man.” The episode did Labour little good and the SNP are enjoying the squabbling among their rivals.
It’s been a week of manifesto launches. Most are promising to reduce the cost of living in various ways and to reduce waiting times in the NHS. The problem with both pledges is that they would cost a lot money, unless they are very carefully targeted. And targeting gives those on the border lines a feeling of unfairness. They also divert money from other important priorities like education, social care, job creation, housing, policing, sport and the arts.
There are however some clear differences in policies. The biggest is the promise from the Conservatives and Reform to reduce the Scottish income tax to be in line with England. This would cost £1.5bn and be paid for by cuts to welfare. The Greens on the other hand want to increase tax on the wealthy though a “mansion tax”, a policy already being introduced by the SNP. They also want no new drilling licences for oil and gas fields, again a policy being implemented by Labour.
The SNP manifesto is the one most likely to be implemented, since they are well ahead in the opinion polls. The pledges include: a cap on the price of basic food in supermarkets, child care for all children over 9 months, a series of walk-in GP clinics, a £10,000 loan scheme for first time house buyers, a mansion tax, a phone ban in schools, 150,000 new apprentice places, a £350m pothole fund, a private jet tax, a £500m transition fund to support renewables and a continued no-nuclear policy.
Labour have rather unkindly pointed out that of the 90 pledges made by the SNP at the last election, 57 of them have not been fully implemented. They also remind people that the SNP have been in power for nearly 20 years. Perhaps it’s time for a change, though “change” has not been a great success for Labour under the Starmer government.
What makes this election different is that the parties are jockeying for position by appealing to people to “lend” them their vote just this time. It’s a sign of our uncertain times. They are saying you don’t have to believe in independence to vote SNP. You don’t have to give up your belief in independence to vote Labour. You don’t have to be worried about immigration to vote for Reform and you don’t have to be a Unionist to vote Conservative. Just vote on the issues that you feel are important right now.
Although 4.2m Scots have registered to vote on May 7th, there are fears of a low turn-out, given the fashionable disillusionment with politicians and the genuine difficulty of deciding matters of tax and public spending.
So far, I think John Swinney has conducted a steadfast campaign for the SNP, sure in the knowledge that half the population support his basic proposition of independence. Labour’s Anas Sarwar has appeared desperate and angry. Malcolm Offord has been unrattled by the sometimes vicious attacks against him. Russell Findlay has tried to remain aloof but he knows he’s doomed. And the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are cheerfully gathering votes in maverick constituencies and hoping to do well in the regional voting.
But time, like the season, is spinning on and Doomsday is only three weeks away.
