Scotland needs a “credible response” to combat the rising tide of violent crime not “quick-fix sticking plaster measures”, a top cop has warned.
The president of the Association of Scottish Police Superintendents, Rob Hay, asked “how bad does it have to get” before policing is able to mount an effective fightback.
Chief Superintendent Hay says the public are seeing crime – “in particular violent crime” – rising on the streets and in their communities.
He also warns that Scottish Government plans to ease prison overcrowding by releasing hundreds of convicts early, “potentially puts the general public at risk” and piles more pressure on already over-stretched police service.
Hay said: “This year there have been some really significant violent offences where young people have been the victims and I think the public are bound to become increasingly concerned and there needs to be a credible response to that.
“I’ve been a police officer for 25 years and I remember the early part of my service going into some of the most deprived areas of Glasgow and the level of violence that we encountered back then.
“Violence in terms particularly of young people taking knives to one another.
“The murder rate was the worst in Western Europe and I think too many people have forgotten about those times and they take the success we have had in the interim for granted and become complacent about it.”
Hay added: “So my question would be how bad does it have to get before we actually see some meaningful and credible steps to ensure policing is able to deal with these things — ultimately that the communities and the public are being kept properly safe.”
Data shows a 600% rise in serious assaults by teenagers over the last five years, with two teenagers killed and 11 injured in knife incidents in recent months.
The tragic deaths of teenagers Amen Teklay and Kayden Moy this year have highlighted concerns about youth violence and knife crime, while Aberdeen schools experienced a 150% increase in incidents involving knives and weapons between April 2024 and March 2025.
Hay warns Police Scotland is already “stretched to breaking” amid falling numbers of officers and a budget that “isn’t keeping pace” with increasing demands on the service.
He said: “It can’t just be a continuous expectation that policing will continue to rearrange the chairs on the decks of the Titanic.
“What’s needed is actually a real credible response that’s about putting back some of those things we used to have in terms of meaningful crime prevention programmes and a named community police officer for every community.
“At the moment the public could be forgiven for thinking all we have done is shut police offices and shrink in size.”
Hay also has concerns over government plans to free hundreds more convicts under “house arrest” to ease prison overcrowding amid Scotland’s shrinking blue line.
The Scottish Government introduced controversial rules to widen the use of home detention curfews after previous early release schemes delivered only short-term respite for under-pressure prison staff.
According to Hay, offenders who clearly pose a danger to individuals and communities “belong in jail”.
He said: “It’s harder than ever to get sent to prison in Scotland so when I hear about additional releases of prisoners and earlier releases of prisoners then you can’t help thinking that those are people who are otherwise dangerous to the public being released early back into communities.
“A declining prison population cannot be heralded as a success if it means a rise in crime and more victims.”
Hay says the “ever diminishing police workforce” will be tasked with dealing with any subsequent threat levels from freed criminals, as well as monitoring compliance with home detention rules.
“This initiative needs to be carefully assessed to ensure Scottish Government aren’t gambling with public safety to alleviate pressure in the prison system.
“Anything that returns criminals back to the communities faster than they would otherwise have been potentially puts the general public at risk.
“One would assume that had these prisoners been suitable for home detention and curfews then the question would be why are they not already on home detention and curfew.
“My concern would be at a time where we are seeing an increase, particularly in violent crime, they are putting criminals back into communities and putting the public at risk.
“This is at a time where policing is significantly stretched in terms of its ability to provide that visible reassurance that we know has such a significant effect suppressing that kind of criminal behaviour in communities.”
Hay says the justice system as a whole is under “intense pressure” and is “creaking at the seams”.
He added: “What we need is not a series of quick-fix sticking plaster type measures. There needs to be a vision to get the justice system out the other side of that and hand in hand with that needs to come an investment in policing.”
The Scottish Prison Service (SPS) says population numbers remain “consistently high” and are expected to hit 8400 this summer.
SNP ministers were accused of sneaking though moves to free criminals after just 15% of their sentence before the Scottish Parliament broke up for the summer recess with new home detention curfew rules due to kick in from October.
A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “The most recent official figures show that Scotland continues to be a safe place to live with reported crime falling by more than half since 1991. This comes on the back of the flagship Scottish Crime and Justice Survey which also showed people feel safer in their communities.
“Violent crime is down significantly in the past 20 years, with serious assaults and homicide levels at near record lows.
“However, we cannot afford to be complacent and we have been consistently clear that any instance of violence including knife crime is one too many. That is why we are taking a wide range of actions to prevent and reduce violence, with more than £6 million funding invested over the past three years.
“The rising and increasingly complex prison population remains a major challenge as it does across the UK and we are taking sustained action to reduce it, so that prison capacity is available to imprison serious offenders.
“This year we will invest £4.2 billion across the justice system including a record £1.64 billion for policing – an increase of £90 million on 2024-25.”
