by Cliff Hague Chair, Cockburn Association
As we welcome 2020, what will Edinburgh be like in 2030? The City Council’s ideas for CityPlan2030, its 10-year Development Plan, go public this month.
In anticipation, the Cockburn Association produced five discussion documents last summer and shared them with the public at three soapbox sessions, and with Community Councils at the Edinburgh Civic Forum.
From 2007-17 Edinburgh’s population increased by 57,000 – that’s 12.5% – mainly from national and international migration. Further growth is predicted: the same rate of increase would mean another 64,000 before 2030. Student housing completions numbered 1380 in 2010-11, but 4,050 were built during 2016-17.
The number of Edinburgh University students here increased 29% 2008-18. Run that rate forward, and add in similar growth at Edinburgh’s three other universities and you have another 18,000 students by 2028.
Tourist numbers grew from 3.27 million in 2012 to approaching 4.8 million today. Hotel rooms completed? 630 in 2010-11, but 1575 in 2016-17. Short-term lets, almost unheard of 10 years ago, now account for one in six flats in the city centre. Traffic has increased too – up 7.5% 2012-17.
Over the past decade these steep increases have impacted most on the city centre and Leith, and squeezed out affordable housing. Continued to 2030 they will change Edinburgh for ever.
Growth promises more GDP and jobs. But 80,000 people in Edinburgh live in relative poverty, in several wards they amount to more than one in four, and one child in five in Edinburgh grows up in poverty. CityPlan2030 should prioritise well-being and inclusion, not just growth.
