Scotland’s chances of reaching the World Cup knockouts for the first time have suffered a huge blow following a series of results last night.
Steve Clarke’s men need four teams to finish third in their groups but have a worse record than them.
Scotland picked up three points from the group stage with a goal difference of minus three.
After the Brazil defeat Scotland’s chances were rated at 42%.
But since then South Korea have finished third with a better goal difference.
Then Ecuador surprisingly beat Germany to finish third in their group with four points and seal a spot in the last 32.
Sweden then drew 1-1 with Japan also qualifying from third place with four points.
Scotland were down to an 6.89% chance of qualification after that, according to Opta, but are now down to 5.49% after Paraguay drew with Australia which suited both sides.
For Scotland to progress, four of the following results need to happen.
Friday
Group I: Senegal and Iraq to draw or Iraq to beat Senegal by no more than two goals.
Group H: Uruguay to lose to Spain.
Group G: Iran to lose to Egypt.
Saturday
Group L: Croatia to lose to Ghana by at least three goals.
Group K: DR Congo v Uzbekistan to be a draw.
Or Uzbekistan to win by no more than three goals.
Group J: Austria and Algeria are on three points and a draw would send both through.
Scotland need Algeria to lose by two or more goals, or Austria to be beaten by at least four goals.
