It should be no surprise that John Swinney and the SNP have won a fifth consecutive election victory in Scotland.
The party starts with an in-built advantage of half the population believing in independence. That leaves the other parties fighting for support among the rest. Labour and Reform have tied for second place and the Greens and the Liberal Democrats have increased their vote.
So with its 58 seats in a parliament of 129, the SNP will form a minority government and as it has done for most of the last 20 years. It will seek support from other parties for its budget and for each of its policies, one by one. We thus have the best of both worlds, a stable administration but an open debate about each of its measures.
John Swinney told the media at a press conference on Saturday of his plans. He said: “My immediate commitment as I promised during the campaign, is to ensure that Nigel Farage and Reform are locked out of governance in Scotland.
“I will be engaging in talks with other opposition parties in the coming days to ensure that this happens and that there can be a stable and inclusive approach to governance after the election. Although the Scottish National Party commands a significant lead in the Scottish Parliament, we do not hold a majority.
“There will need to be cross party cooperation to improve the lives of people in Scotland. When it comes to that task, I am probably more experienced than any other political leader in the United Kingdom in accomplishing what is necessary.”
But Mr Swinney also confirmed that he will not include Reform UK in any first talks about any cross party working. He said: “I’m not obliged to invite Reform into St Andrew’s House next week to have discussions with me about how we cooperate together. I’m not going to do that. Now that will be viewed by some people as me being exclusive. It’s me being deliberately firm about what I’m going to do and setting out the boundaries.”
As the results came through on Friday afternoon, the casual observer may have become so excited about the constituency votes that he was likely to forget the second half of the election, the regional votes which were counted later in the evening. Indeed it took until after midnight for the final results to come in from the slow-moving Highlands. Balancing out the overall results became fiendishly complicated, such is the burden of proportional representation. In the end the SNP’s triumph in the constituency vote was tempered by a stronger performance in the regional vote by the other parties.
Marie Todd was elected on the regional list announced after midnight and is back at Holyrood having lost her constituency seat of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross. She will now sit as an MSP for Highlands and Islands.
What the election has done is ask: What has happened to the Labour Party? And what can we expect from Reform? Only two years ago, Labour won a large majority of MPs across Scotland and across the UK in the General election. Now the party has been reduced to 17 seats at Holyrood. The Starmer government has thrown that lead away with its policy of “Change but No Change”. The Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, said “Labour is hurting” and he is standing by his call at the start of the campaign for Keir Starmer to resign.
Only three years ago, Reform was laughed out of Scotland. Nigel Farage is said to have hidden from the crowd in an Edinburgh pub. Now the party has 17 seats and has tied for second place alongside Labour. It captured the “scunnered” vote with promises it has no chance of fulfilling.
The pundits have been calling this the “scunnered” election. Disillusionment with politics has reduced the voting turnout to 53 per cent. I suspect there’s a mixture of explanations.
One is the feeling that nothing can be done to address the “cost of living crisis” or the other crises, even more real, that face the world – the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the march of globalisation and the climate emergency.
A second reason is the acknowledgement that The Scottish Parliament is working with a tight budget decided by Westminster. The third is that the politicians are only making token gestures towards solving the problems with the NHS, education and local government services. And a fourth explanation is that this has been an election in which people were being urged to vote against parties rather than vote for them.
What we onlookers enjoy about elections are the quirky results from the various constituencies. Indeed, these marginal seats determine the exact numbers in the parliament, though not the over-all result.
So, to pick out a few surprises. The Greens’ Lorna Slater won in Edinburgh Central. She was simply more charismatic than the old SNP warhorse Angus Robertson. The Greens won a second constituency seat, with Holly Bruce defeating Labour in Glasgow Southside. In Shetland, the SNP’s Hannah Mary Goodlad overturned a 70 year old tradition of voting Liberal, though the Liberal Democrats beat the SNP in Skye and Lochaber. The SNP also lost the Western Isles to Labour.
The SNP however held on to their seats in the North East, despite a strong challenge from Reform. In Banffshire and the Buchan Coast Reform came within 360 votes of winning. Stephen Flynn won in Aberdeen Central, so the party leader at Westminster has now transferred his attention to the Scottish Parliament. He confirmed to The Edinburgh Reporter that this will cause a by-election which he is confident the SNP will win.
We ought to spare a tear for the Conservatives. They have lost their position as the official opposition, and their have dropped from 31 to 12 MSPs.
The party leader Russell Findlay said he knew it was going to be bad, coming after the Conservative wipe-out at the UK general election. He blamed Reform for dividing the right-wing vote.
Among the leaders, John Swinney cruised to victory in Perthshire. Anas Sarwar failed to win in Glasgow Cathcart but he has been returned on the regional list, although he left Braehead Arena before the result was announced. The same happened to the Reform leader Malcolm Offord in Inverclyde, although he did stick around for the verdict.
The Liberal Democrats’ leader Alex Cole Hamilton won his constituency seat easily in Edinburgh North. The other party leaders were elected on the regional lists.
There was no unexpected drama in the overall campaign. And the counts on Friday were earnest, well-ordered (in the main) and in line with the opinion polls.
The only surprise was the appearance of a large gannet on the stage in Edinburgh Central. Underneath the feathers was a candidate calling for an end to the Guga Hunt in the Western Isles.
All in all, the election has been a painful process for Labour and the Conservatives and a source of some joy for everyone else. Labour’s fall in Scotland from 22 MPS to 17 has been repeated in Wales and across many local councils in England. So the writing on the wall for Sir Keir Starmer suggests he needs to abandon his manifesto pledge not to increase taxes and he needs to spend money on rebuilding the public services. For the Conservatives it’s clear they have not been forgiven for their disastrous 14 years in power at Westminster.
Sir Keir has called upon some political diehards, Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman to help shore up his leadership.
When asked for his thoughts, John Swinney said: “I suppose there’s an old maxim – whenever you’re in deep trouble, call for Gordon Brown. It is beginning to decline as an effective tool of intervention. I am not sure what the new role will involve, but I certainly don’t think it will prolong Sir Keir Starmer’s stay in Downing Street.”
The SNP will have some satisfaction that they have been returned to power for the fifth time, though they are no nearer to independence. The Greens (15 seats) and the Liberal Democrats (10) have surfed a new wave of support but they are still on the sidelines. Reform has achieved its aim of becoming the new disruptive force in Scottish politics but it has yet to prove it’s here to stay.
At least Scotland has shown it is still a democracy in an increasingly undemocratic world. And the values that go with democracy – peace, order, fairness and openness – are still in alive in this old country.
PICTURED: Malcolm Offord MSP, Leader of Reform UK Scotland Party pictured with his winning team of 17 newly elected MSPs, in front of the Finnieston Crane on the River Clyde.
CREDIT: Colin D Fisher/CDFIMAGES.COM (C) COLIN D FISHER/CDFIMAGES.COM
