A new poll has predicted that the SNP would lose Edinburgh Central, with Scottish Labour forecast to make a shock win.
The Scottish Greens have been neck and neck with the SNP in the constituency, which was won by Angus Robertson in 2021.
Lorna Slater, the incumbent Scottish Greens MSP for Lothian running for the seat, is hoping to pick up the party’s first Holyrood constituency seat in the history of devolution.
However, a recent MRP poll by More in Common predicts Edinburgh Central to go the way of Scottish Labour and local councillor James Dalgleish.
The poll puts Scottish Labour on 28%, the SNP on 26%, and the Scottish Greens on 20%.
Should the poll prove accurate, it would mean a first win in the constituency for Scottish Labour since 2007, when Sarah Boyack won the seat for the third successive time.
SNP candidate, Angus Robertson, had downplayed his “focused on beating the Tories and Reform” when asked who his main challenger was in early April.
Meanwhile, Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith is predicted to be on a knife-edge by More in Common, with the Scottish Greens ahead on 26%, while Scottish Labour and the SNP are on 25% and 24% respectively.
The poll suggested that 39 of Scotland’s 73 constituencies could be won on margins of less than five points.
Additionally, it has predicted that the SNP could return only 56 MSPs, a loss of four on its current total, which would leave them short of a majority which is 65.
Commenting on the poll’s findings, Luke Tryl of More in Common said: “Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency that has afflicted governments around the world.
“Although they look set to maintain power in Holyrood it will almost certainly be with significantly diminished vote share and this model estimates a lower seat count too.
“The SNP benefit however from a further fragmentation of the unionist vote with Reform UK emerging as the strongest unionist party and official opposition as Farage finally breaks through north of the border.
“The Conservatives and Labour meanwhile are heading for their worst result since devolution.
“That said, the biggest takeaway from this model is the sheer uncertainty that six party politics creates.
“Close to half of the constituency seats are estimated to be decided on a margin of less than five points, meaning that there really is all to play for in the closing weeks of this campaign.”
