‘Tis the season of hope. Hope that all the hard work of our 9,000 farmers, 131,600 exam sitters, 1,029 election candidates, and the rest of us, will pay off and give us the success, or at least the contentment, we deserve.
The optimism of spring has been made easier this week with the arrival of fine sunny weather and blossom on the cherry trees.
Like everywhere on Earth, we are obsessed with the cost of living, driven up by the war in the Middle East. It’s the top issue in our current election campaign. But the latest “crisis” comes on top of a deeper frustration that the standard of living for most of us has not improved for nearly 20 years. Nor have the public services we all rely on.
A report out this week from the think tank Future Economy Scotland says average earnings have risen by just 2.4 per cent since the banking crash of 2008. It calculates that if wage growth had continued on the trend before that date, the average annual salary would be nearly £57,000, instead of the actual average today of £40,200.
It blames global inflation, the Covid pandemic, Putin’s war on Ukraine and a lack of investment, both public and private. I also blame the bankers, Brexit and government austerity.
In the election campaign, all parties say they will tackle the “cost of living crisis”. One of the SNP’s attempts, announced last week, was to impose a cap on the price of basic foods at the supermarkets. When doubts were raised over whether the Scottish government had the legal power to enforce this, the plan this week was watered down to a voluntary scheme agreed with the supermarkets. I hope it won’t mean farmers get less for their milk, cereals and meat products.
Another interesting development in the SNP’s campaign is John Swinney’s remark that this election could lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom. If the SNP do well in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru do well in Wales, and Sinn Fein is already the largest party in Northern Ireland, the future of the Union must be in doubt and independence is a real possibility.
The future of North Sea oil and gas is also a central issue of this campaign. Even Donald Trump has noticed and he posted a typically naughty message on his social media page last week. He urged Britain to “drill baby drill” and build “no more windmills.” He has since repeated the message in a telephone interview ahead of the King’s visit to the United States next month. The Green Party is the only one to completely reject Trump’s advice. The other parties are trimming their policies to fall in with the general retreat on climate action. The SNP say each new drilling licence should be assessed on its environmental impact, whatever that may mean.
This week Ed Miliband, the UK energy secretary, doubled down on Labour’s opposition to new drilling licences. But he is allowing “tie back” projects which link into existing oil wells. And he’s sticking by the government’s plan to create 40,000 new jobs in renewables by 2030. The GMB union is warning that not enough jobs are being created in the renewable energy industry to make up for the jobs being lost in oil and gas. While others, like the think tank Redwater, are arguing that oil-well decommissioning should be speeded up, which in itself could create 25,000 jobs.
The Labour Party’s campaign has not been helped by this week’s headlines on the Mandelson affair. Anas Sarwar, the leader of the Scottish Labour Party, must be cursing the day the prime minister appointed Peter Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to America. It was a case of sending the Prince of Darkness to bring enlightenment to one of America’s darkest ages. Sarwar is trying desperately to distance himself from Keir Starmer – even at one point calling on him to resign. But it’s not easy to separate Scottish Labour from UK Labour, even though we have had Devolution for quarter of a century.
On the campaign trail itself, we are seeing the usual photo opportunities with the party leaders and interviews on radio and television. The last leaders’ debate takes place on STV on Tuesday. But it’s been an unusually quiet and incident-free campaign so far, despite the fact that it comes at a turning point in Scottish politics when old loyalties have withered and the new right-wing party, Reform, has surprised us by gaining 20 per cent in the opinion polls.
As mentioned, spring brings hope. But if that doesn’t cheer you up, then it also brings relief that Nature is stirring again and life will go on. As Robert Browning puts it:
“The year’s at the spring
The day’s at the morn
The morning’s at seven
The hillside’s dew pearled
The bird’s on the wing
The snail’s on the thorn
God’s in his heaven
All’s right with the world.”
