Letter from Scotland

The year 2018 was one of the most depressing years of the century so far. Scotland fared better than most but we were still beset by austerity, a cramped economy, deteriorating public services, environmental damage and political stalemate.

The year began with
temperatures down to minus 5 degrees Celsius – even here in
Edinburgh – and an outbreak of winter flu which left 8 people dead,
including an apparently healthy 18 year old girl. In February and
March we suffered from the chilly “Beast from the East.” In June
we had thunderstorms and then one of the hottest summers on record.
Then we were into the storms of the autumn, beginning with Storm Ali,
bringing down trees and causing travel chaos. Who could doubt that
climate change is already under way, even here on the outer edge of
Europe ?

When it came to events, the
most poignant for me was the 100^th
anniversary of the end of the First World War. The commemorations up
and down the country in November were so moving and so many –
wreath-laying ceremonies, church services, concerts, television
programmes.

It all brought home to us all
how fragile civilisation can be, how cruel history was and how
dangerous a world we still live in. There are some 20 conflicts
going on as I write, five of them major wars. The world still as too
many tyrants, all of them unpleasant men – Putin, Xi, Assad, Bin
Salman, Kim Jong-un. There are more who are not quite tyrants but
are never-the-less unpleasant men – Trump, Orban, Erdogan,
Khamenei. Any of these nutcases could plunge us into another major
war. Who can doubt that we need a stronger United Nations to keep
them in check ?

And then there is Brexit, another nutty case. Scotland’s role in this affair has been slightly more sensible than the other nations of the so-called United Kingdom. We voted by 62 per cent to remain in the European Union and the Scottish Parliament has been pretty consistent in calling for Brexit to be abandoned – except, of course, for the Conservatives who’ve argued that Scotland should accept the will of the UK as a whole. Even the fishing and farming communities in the North East, who voted Leave, had second thoughts when they realised that their markets in Europe were being threatened and the supply of hard-working labourers from Eastern Europe might be cut off.

The First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has suggested a compromise – that Britain leave the EU but remain in the Customs Union and the Single Market. But none of the other parties at Westminster seem keen on that idea. Now the SNP and indeed the Scottish Parliament, including Labour MSPs, have been advocating a second referendum to break the deadlock. And, always in the background is the possibility of a second referendum on Scottish independence, if Scotland is “dragged out of the EU against our wishes.”

Meanwhile, the Scottish economy has bumped along at a modest growth rate of around 1.5 per cent. Unemployment is down to 3.7 per cent but consumer spending is weak and shops, supermarkets, restaurants and pubs are all having a difficult time. The public services are struggling too. The budgets for the NHS, schools and local councils have only just kept up with inflation, despite increases in local taxes and higher income-tax on the rich.

We got a shock reminder of the
fragile state of the economy when Michelin announced in November that
it intends to close its tyre factory in Dundee with the loss of 850
jobs. Efforts are going on to “re-purpose” the factory before it
finally closes in 2020 but no one quite knows how that will work. It
was a particular shock to Dundee, a city trying to restore its
fortunes with a massive redevelopment of the waterfront, including
the new V&A museum which opened its strange concrete hull
to the public in September.

As one iconic building opened,
another burnt down. Charles Rennie Mackintosh’s Glasgow School of
Art (finished in 1909) went up in flames in June, while it was being
restored after another devastating fire in 2014. We know the cause
of the first fire – a canister of foam left next to a warm film
projector. But we still don’t know the cause of the second fire or
how much it will cost to rebuild Mackintosh’s stark and dark
masterpiece, if indeed it can be rebuilt.

Our spirits were restored by
our sports men and women. We sent 226 athletes to the Commonwealth
Games in Australia and came 8^th
in the medals table, winning 44 medals. Our national rugby team beat
England 25-13 at Murrayfield. Celtic won all three major trophies on
the football field. But Scotland’s women’s football team did
even better, qualifying for the 2019 World Cup to be held in France
in the summer. And it was lovely seeing Kirsty Ewen win the unsung
hero award at the BBC ‘s Sports Personality of the Year ceremony.
Kirsty overcame her mental health problems by becoming a swimming
coach in Inverness.

So there were some bright
spots during 2018 but, as I say, not many. And as for 2019, the
prospects look gloomy. The dark cloud of Brexit hangs over
everything…our politics, our economy and our spirits. It’s not
just the uncertainly of it, or the divisiveness but the sheer madness
of a self-inflicted wound. I fear too it may cause the rest of Europe
to falter in its pursuit of peace and prosperity.

Each country may face a little more inwards, leaving international problems unsolved, like the wars of the Middle East, the migrant crisis, climate change, the rise of extremism, the power of the multinational corporations, the plastic pollution of the planet.

In Scotland, we face a year of
stalemate. There will, no doubt, be a Brexit reaction leading to
greater support for independence. Already the opinion polls are
showing the country evenly divided and the SNP’s independence march
in October saw tens of thousands (some say 70,000) turn out on the
streets of Edinburgh. But Nicola Sturgeon will be waiting for a much
surer majority before calling a second referendum and that’s
unlikely to come in the next year. Scottish Labour still hasn’t
found its feet after stumbling along for a decade. And the Scottish
Conservatives have only one slogan: we don’t like the SNP.

Even the United Nations is struggling to find something up-lifting to say about 2019. So far it’s come up with “The Year of the Periodic Table”, the 150^th anniversary of its discovery – in a dream – by the Russian scientist Dmitry Mendeleev. The year is to be marked with a series of conferences for chemical scientists, including a “global breakfast for women in chemistry” on 12^th February.

Let’s hope they can mix up something colourful and not too explosive for 2019.